Risk Management - Course abstract (2+ credits)MIT Department, Smart Resource and SCOMA projects are organizing the ‘Risk Management Course’ for Master and Doctoral students of IT Faculty and Finnish Industrial companies at Agora, Mattilanniemi, Jyväskylä from 26.09.2006 till 3.10.2006
Gregory LevitinExpert-Engineer at the Reliability & Equipment Department. R&D Division, <http://www.iec.co.il> The Israel Electric Corporation Ltd. Senior Lecturer. <http://iew3.technion.ac.il:8080/> Faculty of Industrial Engineering & Management, <http://www.technion.ac.il/> Technion - Israel University of Technology Introduction to analysis and optimization of multi-state system survivability
Survivability, the ability of a system to tolerate intentional attacks or accidental failures or errors, is becoming especially important when a system operates in battle conditions or is affected by a corrosive medium or other hostile environment.
A survivable system is one that is able to "complete its mission in a timely manner, even if significant portions are incapacitated by attack or accident". This definition presumes two important things:
First, both the impact of external factors (attack) and internal causes (failures) affect system survivability. Therefore, it is important to take into account the influence of reliability (availability) of system elements on the entire system survivability.
Second, a system can have different states corresponding to different combinations of failed or damaged elements composing the system. Each state can be characterized by a system performance rate, which is the quantitative measure of a system’s ability to perform its task. Therefore a system should be considered a multi-state one when its survivability is analyzed.
Traditional binary reliability models allow only two possible states for a system and its components: perfect functionality and complete failure. Many real-world systems are composed of multi-state components, which have different performance levels and several failure modes with various effects on the system’s entire performance. Such systems are called multi-state systems (MSSs). Examples of MSSs are power systems or computer systems where the component performance is respectively characterized by the generating capacity or the data processing speed. For MSSs, the outage effect will be essentially different for units with different performance rates. Therefore, the reliability analysis of MSSs is much more complex when compared with binary-state systems. In real-world problems of MSS reliability analysis, the great number of system states that need to be evaluated makes it difficult to use traditional binary reliability techniques.
The recently emerged universal generating function (UGF) technique allows one to find the entire MSS performance distribution based on the performance distributions of its elements by using rather simple algebraic procedures. The UGF technique makes many difficult survivability analysis and optimization problems solvable.
The course will cover the following topics: 1. Introduction to the MSS. 2. Introduction to the UGF technique. 3. UGF technique for reliability analysis of different types of systems:
4. MSS reliability optimization 5. System survivability and measures of its enhancement 6. Optimal system survivability enhancement 7. Multilevel protection and its optimization 8. Optimal defense strategy against intentional attacks.
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